Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
