Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
